PNNL

Abstract

The increase in winter haze over eastern China in recent decades due to variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions was quantified using observed atmospheric visibility from the National Climatic Data Center Global Summary of Day database for 1980–2014 and simulated PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005 from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Observed winter haze days averaged over eastern China (105–122.5°E, 20–45°N) increased from 21 d in 1980 to 42 d in 2014, and from 22 to 30 d between 1985 and 2005. The GEOS-Chem model captured the increasing trend of winter PM2.5 concentrations for 1985–2005, with concentrations averaged over eastern China increasing from 16.1 µg m-3 in 1985 to 38.4 µg m-3 in 2005. Considering variations in both anthropogenic emissions and meteorological parameters, the model simulated an increase in winter surface-layer PM2.5 concentrations of 10.5 (±6.2) µg m-3 decade-1 over eastern China. The increasing trend was only 1.8 (±1.5) µg m-3 decade-1 when variations in meteorological parameters alone were considered. Among the meteorological parameters, the weakening of winds by -0.09 m s-1 decade-1 over 1985–2005 was found to be the dominant factor leading to the decadal increase in winter aerosol concentrations and haze days over eastern China during recent decades.