PNNL

Abstract

In this study, GCAM-China is exercised to examine the impact of CCS availability on the projected evolution of China’s electric power sector under the Paris Increased Ambition policy scenario developed by Fawcett et al. based on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted under the COP-21 Paris Agreement. This policy scenario provides a backdrop for understanding China’s electric generation mix over the coming century under several CCS availability scenarios: CCS is fully available for commercial-scale deployment by 2025; by 2050; by 2075; and CCS is unavailable for use in meeting the modelled mitigation targets through 2100. Without having CCS available, the Chinese electric power sector turns to significant use of nuclear, wind, and solar to meet growing demands and emissions targets, at a cost. Should large-scale CCS deployment be delayed in China by 25 years, the modeled per-ton cost of climate change mitigation is projected to be roughly $420/tC (2010 US dollars) by 2050, relative to $360/tC in the case in which CCS is available to deploy by 2025, a 16% increase. Once CCS is available for commercial use, mitigation costs for the two cases converge, equilibrating by 2085. However, should CCS be entirely unavailable to deploy in China, the mitigation cost spread, compared to the 2025 case, doubles by 2075 ($580/tC and $1130/tC respectively), and triples by 2100 ($1050/tC vs. $3200/tC). However, while delays in CCS availability may have short-term impacts on China’s overall per-ton cost of meeting the emissions reduction target evaluated here, as well as total mitigation costs, the carbon price is likely to approach the price path associated with the full CCS availability case within a decade of CCS deployment. Having CCS available before the end of the century, even under the delays examined here, could reduce the total amount of nuclear and renewable energy that must deploy, reducing the overall cost of meeting the emissions mitigation targets.