PNNL

Abstract

The achievement of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2100 is required to limit global temperature rise below 2 °C above preindustrial levels. Earlier accomplishments of net-zero GHG emissions in developed regions support this global target. Here, we develop a roadmap for California to achieve net-zero GHG emissions sustainably in 2050 by using detailed modeling of energy system transformation, cross-sectoral connectivity, and technology penetration, as well as quantify the associated health cobenefits from reduced co-emitted air pollutants. We find that approximately 14,000 premature deaths can be avoided in California in 2050, and that these health cobenefits are disproportionately higher in disadvantaged communities (i.e., 35% of avoided deaths will come from 25% of the state’s population). The annualized monetary benefits ($215 billion) exceed the GHG abatement cost ($106 billion) by $109 billion. This roadmap requires the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) technology to offset some GHG emissions. However, this BECCS technology comes at a price, as it would emit a considerable amount of air pollutants and reduce health cobenefits by $4 billion. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that ambitious GHG reduction efforts can provide significant health cobenefits, especially for residents of disadvantaged communities.