PNNL

Abstract

We forecast emissions, health and climate impacts of freight truck and rail transportation in the United States under various policies between 2010 and 2050. We use a system-of-systems approach, combining models of downscaled economy, modal choice, network loading, urban development, and emission technology. We predict that overall air pollutant emissions and health impacts from the freight-truck-rail system will be greatly reduced from 2010 to 2030, but climate forcing will continue to increase if petroleum remains the dominant fuel source. A carbon tax could shift freight shipments from trucking to the more energy efficient rail, providing the greatest climate benefits among all policies, whereas a policy enforcing truck fleet maintenance could cause the largest reduction in air pollutant emissions, offering the largest health benefits. Increasing urban compactness could reduce freight activity but increase population exposure per unit emission , offering a slightly positive health benefit over the current trend of urban decentralization.