PNNL

Abstract

The United States has developed a Mid-Century Strategy to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 80% or more below 2005 levels by 2050.1 Achieving these reductions will entail a major transformation of the energy system, including the electric power sector.2,3 This study uses a detailed state-level model of the U.S. energy system embedded within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM-USA) to explore pathways for the evolution of the U.S. electric power sector that achieve 80% economy-wide reductions in GHG emissions by 2050. The pathways presented in this report build on the existing literature for similar emissions pathways as well as feedback received during a workshop of experts organized by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis. Consistent with previous analyses, the scenarios in this study include a substantial decarbonization of the electric power sector, increased electrification of end-use sectors, and increase in the deployment of low- and zero-carbon technologies such as renewables, nuclear and carbon capture utilization and storage. The results show that the degree to which the electric power sector will need to decarbonize depends on the nature of technological advances in the energy sector, and the degree to which end-use sectors electrify.