PNNL

Abstract

Future transformations in the electricity sector could entail major shifts in power sector technology mixes and electricity trade, with consequences for the trading of virtual water. Previous virtual water trade studies largely focus on historical timeframes. We explore, for the first time, future – through 2050 – virtual water trade driven by electricity trade under a range of future electricity system transformation scenarios using the United States as an example. Under a business-as-usual scenario, virtual water trading in 2050 decreases by 3% relative to current levels. By contrast, virtual water trading increases respectively by 9%, 15%, and 66%, in scenarios characterized by higher socioeconomic growth, higher potential for transmission expansion, and low-carbon transitions. These increases are driven by a shift away from fossil fuel based electricity to nuclear and renewable generation expansion in the western U.S., resulting in higher virtual water trade to the east. In addition, we find that as electricity generation shifts west, an increased amount of nonrenewable groundwater sources will be consumed to generate electricity that supplies the east. Independent of scenario, the US electricity grid relies on virtual water exports from a few states, suggesting the need for integrated management strategies of the use of water for electricity generation.