PNNL

Abstract

This paper compares projections over the 21st century of SO2, BC, and OC emissions from three technologically detailed, long-term integrated assessment models. The character of the projections and the response of emissions due to a comprehensive climate policy are discussed. In a continuation of historical experience, aerosol and precursor emissions are increasingly decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions over the 21st century. Implementation of a comprehensive climate policy further reduces emissions, although there is significant variation in this response by sector and by model. Differences in model responses can be traced to specific characteristics of reference case end-use and supply-side technology deployment and emissions control assumptions, which are detailed by sector.