PNNL

Abstract

How much elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) contributes to the terrestrial carbon sink (NEP) is a debated issue (Friedlingstein et al., 1995; Field & Raupach, 2004; Schimel et al., 2015; Keenan et al., 2016; Huntzinger et al., 2017). The results from Free-Air CO2-Enrichment (FACE) experiments at the site scale show that eCO2 generally increase plant growth and net ecosystem CO2 uptake for a few years after exposure to eCO2, but the effects were highly variable across sites (Jastrow et al., 2005; De Graaff et al., 2006), which poses a challenge for scaling up these local observations. Here, we extract the simulated short-term responses of NEP to eCO2 from global carbon models using a substitute pulse-response approach, and compare them with site-scale responses from FACE experiments in temperate ecosystems. In 12 gridded terrestrial ecosystem models examined, the large-scale NEP sensitivity to eCO2 across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperate region is linearly related to the site-scale sensitivity across different ecosystems. We use this emergent relationship, together with the observed response to eCO2 in the FACE site-scale data to estimate a data constrained effect of eCO2 on the NH temperate NEP of 0.73 ± 0.22 Pg C yr-1 per hundred parts per million (ppm) of CO2 increase during the past five decades. This is 26% higher than the mean of the model ensemble. Among the models, those with carbon-nitrogen interactions underestimate the sensitivity of NEP to eCO2, suggesting overly strong nitrogen-limitations on carbon uptake. We further identify that the NEP sensitivity to eCO2 at NH temperate scale is linearly correlated with that at global scale across the models. Extrapolating the constrained NH eCO2 effect to the global terrestrial carbon sink provides an estimate of 4.1 ± 1.5 Pg C yr-1 [100 ppm]-1. Large uncertainties remain regarding the global response broadly inferred from temperate FACE data, due to the lack of observations in boreal and tropical regions, emphasizing the importance of deploying new FACE experiments in those regions.