PNNL

Abstract

To meet U.S. goals of deploying additional wind plans as part of the decarbonization strategy, wind plants are being planned for the deep water offshore the western U.S. The wind flow in that region is complex due to the proximity to the coast, cold water upwelling, persistent stratiform clouds that interact with the radiation in ways that have the potential to destabilize the atmosphere. That flow has the potential to change with a changing climate. To address these issues, we assess the flow and the clouds in that region using downscaled climate model data, under both historic climate and projected future conditions. We note that the climate models agree fairly well with the cloud patterns observed by satellite data in the near and offshore regions. We then assess the projected changes in clouds, wind speed, and other important variables, noting that the predominant north/northwesterly low level jet is expected to strengthen and clouds may be commensurately enhanced, although changes are within about 10% of current conditions. Examining the dynamics associated with the changes in the climate models provide confidence in the dynamical consistency of the projected changes.