PNNL

Abstract

Investments are often recognized as the ‘lifeblood’ of the global energy system. Low-carbon investments can provide the means for initiating a system transformation, as called for by the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving our understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio needed for transforming the energy system will not be instigated by the current suite of Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead requires that low-carbon investments overtake fossil investments globally before 2025 and then continue to grow from there. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked up-scaling in low-carbon capita beyond that demanded by 2 °C. The investment needs for making progress on certain other SDG targets are small relative to those for energy.