PNNL

Abstract

To advance understanding of the interactions between human activities and the water cycle, an integrated terrestrial water cycle component has been developed for Earth system models. This includes a land surface model fully coupled to a river routing model and a generic water management model to simulate natural and regulated flows. A global integrated assessment model and its regionalized version for the U.S. are used to simulate water demand consistent with the energy technology and socio-economics scenarios. Human influence on the hydrologic cycle includes regulation and storage from reservoirs, consumptive use and withdrawal from multiple sectors ( irrigation and non-irrigation) and overall redistribution of water resources in space and time. As groundwater provides an important source of water supply for irrigation and other uses, the integrated modeling framework has been extended with a simplified representation of groundwater as an additional supply source, and return flow generated from differences between withdrawals and consumptive uses from both groundwater and surface water systems. The groundwater supply and return flow modules are evaluated by analyzing the simulated regulated flow, reservoir storage and supply deficit for irrigation and non-irrigation sectors over major hydrologic regions of the conterminous U.S. The modeling framework is then used to provide insights on the reliability of water resources by isolating the reliability due to return flow and/or groundwater sources of water. Our results show that high sectoral ratio of withdrawals over consumptive demand adds significant stress on the water resources management that can be alleviated by reservoir storage capacity. The return flow representation therefore exhibits a clear east-west contrast in its hydrologic signature, as well as in its ability to help meet water demand. Groundwater use has a limited hydrologic signature but the most pronounced signature is in terms of decreasing water supply deficit. The combined return flow and groundwater use signature conserves the east-west constrast with overall uncertainties due to the groundwater-return flow representation, varying ratios combined with different hydroclimate conditions, storage infrastructures, sectoral water uses and dependence on groundwater. The redistribution of surface and groundwater by human activities, and the uncertainties in their representation have important implications to the water and energy balances in the Earth system and land-atmosphere interactions.