PNNL

Abstract

In 2005 less than 15% of the world’s population lived in Africa, by the end of the 21st century more than one-fifth of the world’s population could live there. By dint of sheer numbers, Africa is a place to be reckoned with. But from a global perspective, Africa is not a major emitter of greenhouse gases or consumer of fossil energy today. However, Africa’s share of global emissions at the end of the century depends critically on assumptions about its growth in economic activity. This paper explores the implications of alternative assumptions about future rates of economic growth in Africa. It finds that assumptions about the rate of economic growth have profound implications for global economic activity, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions. African emissions vary from 5% to 20% of global emissions, and emissions in Sub-Saharan Africa range from 2% to 10% of world emissions, depending on the model and scenario. In addition, affluence levels till the middle of the century remain low, as a result the population remains dependent on traditional bioenergy for the bulk of its residential energy needs. Although the share of electricity in final energy, electric capacity and electricity use per capita all rise with income, they do not reach levels commensurate with those in developed countries today. Hence, dedicated policies may be needed in order to address energy poverty and access issues in the region.