PNNL

Abstract

Collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets will be assessed by the Agreement’s Global Stocktake process. Global emission pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are a likely benchmark against which aggregated countries’ greenhouse gas mitigation pledges will be assessed. However, this approach requires comparability, which is currently hampered by a 5 GtCO2yr-1 mismatch between the estimated global land anthropogenic flux of IAMs and countries’ GHG inventories (GHGIs) for 2005-2015. We show that this gap is mostly the result of differences in how the anthropogenic forest sink is defined. Countries define managed forest more broadly than IAMs, and on this larger area typically consider anthropogenic also fluxes due to human-induced environmental change, which IAMs do not include their pathways. Using five IAMs and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), we present and apply a novel method that adjusts IAM results to the countries’ definition, closing the gap with GHGIs at global and regional scale. When expressed in a way compatible with GHGIs, adjusted 1.5°C and well-below 2°C pathways have a cumulative CO2 balance until carbon neutrality that is 110–176 GtCO2 lower than the original IAMs pathways. The use of these country-compatible emission pathways under the Global Stocktake would therefore be essential for an accurate assessment of the collective progress towards the Paris Agreement’s climate goals.