PNNL

Abstract

The coincidence of floods on the mainstream and its tributary may cause significant flood damages at downstream of the confluence. In this study, the coincidence risks of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates on Jinsha River and Min River, China were analyzed using multivariate copulas. The Pearson Type III (P-III) distribution and the Mixed von Mises distribution were selected to establish the marginal distributions of flood magnitude and occurrence date, respectively. The Clayton copula and Gumbel-Hougaard (GH) copula functions were then used to establish the joint probability distributions of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates of Jinsha River and Min River, respectively. The coincidence probabilities of flood magnitudes and occurrence dates on Jinsha River and Min River were investigated, and the interval of Annual Maximum (AM) flood occurrence dates of the two rivers was also analyzed. The results show that the higher coincidence probabilities of flood occurrence dates of the two rivers occur in the period from mid-June to early September, with three peaks of coincidence probability occurring on 28th July, 14th August, and 31th August, respectively. The coincidence probability of flood magnitudes for 0.1%, 0.2%, 1%, 5%, and 10% design floods are 1.651×10-8, 6.601×10-8, 1.647×10-6, 4.071×10-5, and 1.606×10-4, respectively. The probability of AM flood occurrence date of Jinsha River and Min River with a time interval of ±3 days is 10.16%. These results can provide guidance for the reservoir operation of Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs and offer reference for flood control and disaster reduction at downstream of the confluence.