PNNL

Abstract

Wind energy is a virtually carbon- and pollution- free electricity source, and global wind resources greatly exceed electricity demand. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of over 20% during the last two decades and is projected to increase by a further 50% by the end of 2023. In this review we describe the factors that dictate the wind resource magnitude and variability and illustrate the tools and techniques that are being used to make projections of wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions. Natural variability due to the action of internal climate modes appears to dominate over global warming induced non-stationarity over most areas with large wind energy installations or potential. However, there is evidence for increased wind energy resources by the end of the current century in northern Europe and the US Southern Great Plains. New technology trends in the industry are changing the sensitivity of wind energy to global climate non-stationarity and thus present new challenges and opportunities for innovative geoscience research. Evolution of climate modeling to increasingly address mesoscale processes is providing improved projections of both wind resources and wind turbine operating conditions and will contribute to continued reductions in LCoE from wind power generation.