PNNL

Abstract

Increasing the use of renewable energy is an important strategy for climate change mitigation. Nevertheless, due to their reliance on climatic conditions, the energy system vulnerability to climate change can be larger in the future. In this research we implement a systematic model comparison to analyze climate impacts on the energy system, including their underlying uncertainty, at a global and regional scale under a low level (RCP2.6) and a medium level (RCP6.0) of climate change scenarios. The impacts are analyzed on four energy sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass) which embed eight different energy technologies. Furthermore, indirect impacts on the use of fossil sources due to system interactions are also analyzed. An important finding is that for the period 2071-2100 and globally, low climate impacts on the energy system can be expected under both scenarios with larger uncertainty under the RCP2.6. Though, the impacts can be more pronounced and cause a reduction in energy use for some renewable sources at a regional scale.