PNNL

Abstract

The controversy surrounding the observed trends in the frequency of South Asian Monsoon Depressions (MDs)1-4, the association of MDs with the summer season extremes5,6, and a moisture driven future precipitation response in Global Climate Models (GCMs)7,8 have elevated the importance of understanding climate change impacts on the characteristics of MDs. GCMs exhibit a significant relationship between the long-term mean occurrences of MDs and the strength of the background upper (lower) tropospheric meridional (zonal) winds and atmospheric moisture in the core genesis region of MDs. Likewise, the strength of the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient (MTG) in GCMs determines the trajectories of MDs over land. While monsoon dynamics progressively weakens in the future period, atmospheric moisture exhibits a strong increase, limiting the impact of changes in background dynamics on the frequency of MDs. Moreover, the weakening of the future MTG is many times weaker than its inherent underestimation in the GCMs. Hence the 21st century increase in radiative forcing does not significantly reduce the frequency of MDs or impact their trajectories over land in the GCMs. Although more wet extremes are expected to occur during the MD lifecycle, non-depression day extremes dominate the overall increase in extreme precipitation, which may render the monsoon extremes less predictable in the future.