PNNL

Abstract

In preparation for the UN climate summit in Paris in December 2015, over 150 countries representing over 85% of global emissions have submitted ‘Intended Nationally Determined Contributions’ (INDCs) for climate actions defined through 2030 to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We use a probabilistic perspective to explore the potential range of temperature outcomes enabled by the INDCs, using a detailed integrated energy-economy-land model and a probabilistic climate model. We find that if successfully implemented, the INDCs lay the foundation for both reducing the probability of the worst levels of temperature change until 2100 and increasing the probability of limiting global warming to 2°C. However, the degree to which either of these objectives is achieved will depend on the level of ambition beyond 2030.