PNNL

Abstract

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation scenarios reaching net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in North America. This paper summarizes the contribution of bioenergy to meeting the net zero target in the United States in transportation, industry, electricity generation, and buildings. Modeling teams based their CO2 emissions reference scenario on the U.S. Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and one or more Net Zero scenarios. For these models, consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. Much of the energy crop input to electricity generation in the Net Zero scenario is combined with carbon dioxide capture and storage, providing up to 1,000 MtCO2 of negative emissions in 2050. Modeling teams could assume a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry of 800 Mt CO2 per year in the United States, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. A Net Zero+ scenario allowed modelers to include technologies more advanced than in the Net Zero scenario. However, bioenergy consumption decreased in the Net Zero+ scenario relative the Net Zero scenario, due to a lower carbon price incentive in the Net Zero+ scenario that was a result of lower costs of advanced energy technologies.