PNNL

Abstract

This article focuses on the implications for the US National Climate Assessment (NCA) of diversifying information needs to support climate change risk management. It describes how the Third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3) evolved to begin to narrow the gap between information from climate and impacts scientists and “intermediaries” (individuals who have expertise in climate science, communication, and decision support processes)—who are sometimes collectively described as “producers” in this article—and the decision making needs of a wide range of “users” (individuals involved in advising or making a wide range of policy and management decisions). One step in the evolution of the NCA included adding a chapter to assess decision support tools and systems being used in climate-related decisions. Another involved efforts to improve characterization of the level of confidence of NCA3 authors in their findings to help decision makers and their advisors differentiate well established and more preliminary conclusions. This paper lays out an argument for increasing the role of the NCA in assessing decision support systems that should be considered in planning the Fourth Assessment (NCA4) and the Sustained Assessment. It also briefly reviews approaches and potential next steps related to uncertainty characterization and communication of confidence intended to improve application of assessment findings by decision makers.