PNNL

Abstract

As part of the Transactive Systems Program at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a value modeling system was developed to support the evaluation of transactive systems. The technique is general enough to be applied outside transactive systems and to demonstrate this capability, a project was undertaken to use this value modeling technique as a means for modeling the valuation process undertaken by vertically integrated utilities when undergoing integrated resource planning (IRP). IRP is the process by which vertically integrated utilities (those that both serve customers directly as well as manage and run generation assets to do so) regularly go through to demonstrate to their regulators that they have a plan to meet the expected future load of their customers in a least cost and compliant manner. Traditionally this has been primarily an issue of how many and of which types of power plants to build but increasingly has included alternative measures such as demand response programs. Increasingly, environmental regulations play a significant role in both determine what types of power plants can be built under current regulations as well as what retrofits or upgrades need to be made to existing plants to allow them to continue to operate. Two use-case diagrams were constructed, one showing the showing the process by which IRP is carried out and another showing how a vertically integrated utility procures the resources it requires to meet load now and in the future. These diagrams help clarify the difference and provide a high-level outline of the two processes. A class diagram was constructed to clearly define the types of actors that would be considered in this model and the relationships between them. This diagram tacitly indicates which types of actors are and are not included in the model which provides significant guidance in defining the scope of the model. The relationship between the classes/actors provides further indication of what areas of the model have higher levels of detail and by implication bear more significance in modeling the system. Using the classes/actors defined in the class diagram, a business value diagram was constructed that defines the key value streams exchanged between the actors. This diagram provides a clear expression of the business case of the vertically integrated utility and who its counter-parties are during the process of meeting load. These value streams have not only to do with meeting the load but doing so in a manner that meets environmental regulations. Increasingly, IRPs have three key metrics to evaluate a given plant to meet load: net present value of revenue required, emissions, and renewable energy credits. From this business value diagram, more detailed activity diagrams were formed that focus on a few of the key value stream exchanges, showing the process by which each party accrues value. These diagrams provide insight into the timing and sequence of the interactions in a way that the business value diagrams did not. The transactive value model was found to be highly compatible with IRP and provided a clear, simple model of the analysis done during IRP and key metrics driving IRP decisions. In particular it highlighted a few key items that may or may not have been as clear prior to the development of the model. Specifically, the role of the environmental regulations has become increasingly important and two of the three key metrics by which IRPs are typically evaluated are environmentally focused. Additionally, though generally not acknowledged, the role of the investor was included in this model as they are an essential source of capital in building new power plants and cannot be ignored when defining the business case of the vertically integrated utility.