PNNL

Abstract

By using coupled models of human and earth system processes, we show that climate mitigation would result in an increase in the total magnitude and spatial extent of surface water deficits for almost all U.S. water resources regions, and in larger and more extreme hotspots of water deficits—primarily due to the increased demand for bioenergy crops. Most water deficits will be experienced by the agricultural sector, with the exception of Northeast region of the US. In addition, using models capable of resolving higher spatial and temporal variability and representing human-earth system interactions, we reveal that climate mitigation may have large human footprints on streamflows, especially in dry regions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate mitigation if human-natural system interactions are ignored in policy-making.