PNNL

Abstract

Wildfires are some of the most powerful natural disasters on Earth, often leading to devastating effects. The recent increase in _re activity in the United States is evident: from 2015 through 2020, nearly 49 million acres burned due to wildfires according to the National Interagency Fire Center. In 2020 alone, over 10 million acres burned, with much of the nation feeling the effects, as smoke blanketed the country during the summer and fall. While wildfires can influence many aspects of daily human life, here we focus on their profound impact on renewable energy, which was strongly affected by the smoke events of 2020. During wildfire episodes, large concentrations of smoke particulates are emitted into the atmosphere. The main role of smoke emissions in the context of this study is the obscuration of solar radiation, thus reducing the amount of available solar energy at the Earth's surface. Here we use multiple observational networks and a numerical weather prediction model to show that the wildfire events of 2020 had a significantly detrimental influence on solar energy production. More specifically, smoke was responsible for a week-long period of intense particulate matter exposure while simultaneously reducing solar power by _10-30%. We find that including the contribution of biomass burning particles greatly improves the day-ahead solar energy forecast, which is an important consideration for energy grid balancing.