PNNL

Abstract

China’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 is ambitious and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to achieve a +1.5ºC warming target above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear including the dependence on negative emissions technologies. Here, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), an dynamic-recursive, technology-rich integrated assessment model, to simulate how DACCS might contribute to China’s meeting this target. Our results show that, for China to be net-zero in 2060, it would need to deploy negative emissions technologies (NETs) at very large scales, on the order of 2.5 GtCO2 negative emissions per year with up to 1.5 GtCO2 per year of that coming from direct air capture and carbon sequestration (DACCS). DACCS, like other forms of negative emissions, is an emerging technology that has not been demonstrated at a commercial scale. The financial implications of using DACCS versus more costly decarbonization of recalcitrant emissions from transportation and industrial sectors could amount to a difference of US$ 277 billion between plans with and without DACCS available in 2060.