More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting the 1.5°C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from conventional coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1,037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve 1.5°C or well-below 2°C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.
Published: April 24, 2022
Citation
Cui R., N. Hultman, D. Cui, H.C. McJeon, S. Yu, M.R. Edwards, and A. Sen, et al. 2021.A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.Nature Communications 12, no. 1:1468.PNNL-ACT-SA-10479.doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21786-0