PNNL

Abstract

Future energy system transitions could substantially increase material demands, but material supplies might lag, suggesting implications for the scale and pace of energy technology deployment. We develop a new capability in the Global Change Analysis Model to endogenously quantify demands for 12 materials–including critical minerals–in the power sector and evaluate the impacts of material supply constraints on power sector evolution. If future material supplies in the global power sector are constrained to historical growth rates, investments in the global power sector through 2050 reduce by 6.5% and electricity prices across the globe increase by 3.2%–30.1% compared to an unconstrained material supply case. Under a scenario where the energy system transitions to low-carbon technologies, material constraints reduce investments by 21.4% and prices increase by 33.8%–71.2%. Diversifying and increasing material supplies (e.g., through recycling, identifying additional sources) and technological innovation to reduce material intensities could alleviate these impacts.