PNNL

Abstract

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role under stringent climate change mitigation targets that require a negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. A range of scenarios simulate global bioenergy demand of 100 EJ, 200 EJ, 300 EJ, and 400 EJ by 2100, with and without a price on carbon. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with varying methodologies and technologies for bioenergy supply and greenhouse gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that large-scale use of bioenergy, if not properly implemented, would raise food prices and lead to more people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows importance of the careful bioenergy implementation potentially including regulation for protecting cropland for food or usage of bioenergy feedstock uncompetitive with food.