PNNL

Abstract

In this study, we develop an updated global estimate of onshore wind energy potential using reanalysis wind speed data, along with updated wind turbine technology performance and cost assumptions as well as explicit consideration of transmission distance in the calculation of transmission costs. We find that wind has the potential to supply a significant portion of world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by region as well as with assumptions such as on what types of land can be used to site wind farms. Total global wind potential under central assumptions is estimated to be approximately 89 petawatt hours per year at less than 9 cents/kWh with substantial regional variations. One limitation of global wind analyses is that the resolution of current global wind speed reanalysis data can result in an underestimate of high wind areas. A sensitivity analysis of eight key parameters is presented. Wind potential is sensitive to a number of input parameters, particularly those related to land suitability and turbine density as well as cost and financing assumptions which have important policy implications. Transmission cost has a relatively small impact on total wind costs, changing the potential at a given cost by 20-30%. As a result of sensitivities studied here we suggest that further research intended to inform wind supply curve development focus not purely on physical science, such as better resolved wind maps, but also on these less well-defined factors, such as land-suitability, that will also have an impact on the long-term role of wind power.