PNNL

Abstract

This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use (wastewater) treatment into the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study builds on prior research on the historical demands of energy-for-water, fitting these demands of energy into existing nation-level energy balances, where demands for energy-for-water have heretofore been aggregated with other energy use in the commercial and public services, industrial, agricultural, and/or electric power sectors. This development allows for improved projections of future energy demands in general, and in this study, allows for assessment of the energy implications of different scenarios of improvements in water access and water quality that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. In our baseline scenario, energy-for-water approximately doubles from 2010 to 2050, and in the scenario with the greatest level of water access, standards for treatment of wastewater, and irrigation expansion, the consequent energy-for-water demands increase three-fold from 2010 to 2050. Note also that these increases do not consider future scarcity-driven increases in energy requirements per unit of water abstraction, treatment, and distribution.