PNNL

Abstract

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) support national and international policy making for sustainable development. They rely on quantitative scenarios produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to assess alternative futures. IAM-based scenarios can provide a coherent assessment framework that integrates different subsystems and their interactions. However, these top-down approaches have limited ability to represent key local dynamics, unexpected events, or the role of diverse actors. Other methods, including participatory scenarios, can help co-create narratives that emphasize diverse contents with clear links to existing decision-making. However, these bottom-up approaches provide only limited insight into global processes and are not constrained by measurable parameters. In our review, we identify four key challenges for current GEA scenarios: surprise, scale, diversity and imagination. We illustrate how these challenges can be overcome by combining top-down and bottom-up scenario approaches and conclude with a call to action for future research to take on this trans-disciplinary challenge.