Earth Scientist
Earth Scientist

Biography

Claudia Tebaldi is a climate scientist and statistician at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory who is working to enhance the characterization of climate-change-related risk at the intersection of Earth and human system sciences.

As a feature expert, Claudia is available to provide scientific and technical expertise to the news media. Learn more about her background here.

Disciplines and Skills

  • Human and Earth system sciences
  • Human and Earth system modeling
  • Scenario analysis
  • Statistical inference
  • Statistical modeling
  • Uncertainty quantification

Education

  • PhD in statistics, Duke University

Awards and Recognitions

  • American Geophysical Union Fellow

Publications

2025

  • van Vuuren, D., O'Neill, B., Tebaldi, C., Chini, L., Friedlingstein, P., Hasegawa, T., Riahi, K., Sanderson, B., Govindasamy, B., Bauer, N., Eyring, V., Fall, C., Frieler, K., Gidden, M., Gohar, L., Jones, A., King, A., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lawrence, P., Lennard, C., Lowe, J., Mathison, C., Mehmood, S., Prado, L., Zhang, Q., Rose, S., Ruane, A., Schleussner, C.-F., Seferian, R., Sillmann, J., Smith, C., Sörensson, A., Panickal, S., Tachiiri, K., Vaughan, N., Vishwanathan, S., Yokohata, T., and Ziehn, T.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7), EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025.
  • Gillett, N. P., Simpson, I. R., Hegerl, G., Knutti, R., Mitchell, D., Ribes, A., Shiogama, H., Stone, D., Tebaldi, C., Wolski, P., Zhang, W., and Arora, V. K.: The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4086, 2025.
  • Andrew Gettelman*, Claudia Tebaldi and L Ruby Leung et al. Climate nowcasting, 2025 Environ. Res.: Climate 4 013002DOI 10.1088/2752-5295/adc327
  • Basile, S., Crimmins, A., Lipschultz, F. et al. Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future. Climatic Change 178, 84 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6
  • Brown, J. K., Dorheim, K., Mu, D., Snyder, A., Tebaldi, C., & Bond-Lamberty, B. (2025). The effect of different climate sensitivity priors on projected climate: A probabilistic analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL113505. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113505
  • Sheng, D., Zhao, X., Edmonds, J.A. et al. Omitting labor responses underestimates the effects of future heat stress on agriculture. Commun Earth Environ 6, 400 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02318-w.

2024

  • Snyder, A., Prime, N., Tebaldi, C., and Dorheim, K.: Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024, 2024.
  • Pirani, A., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Byers, E. et al. Scenarios in IPCC assessments: lessons from AR6 and opportunities for AR7. npj Clim. Action 3, 1 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-023-00082-1
  • Brown JK, Pressburger L, Snyder A, Dorheim K, Smith SJ, Tebaldi C, et al. (2024) Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model. PLOS Clim 3(5): e0000295. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000295
  • Snyder et al., (2024). STITCHES: a Python package to amalgamate existing Earth system model output into new scenario realizations. Journal of Open Source Software, 9(97), 5525, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.05525
  • Narayan, K. B., O'Neill, B. C., Waldhoff, S., and Tebaldi, C.: A consistent dataset for the net income distribution for 190 countries and aggregated to 32 geographical regions from 1958 to 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2333–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2333-2024, 2024.
  • Dorheim, K., Gering, S., Gieseke, R., Hartin, C., Pressburger, L., Shiklomanov, A. N., Smith, S. J., Tebaldi, C., Woodard, D. L., and Bond-Lamberty, B.: Hector V3.2.0: functionality and performance of a reduced-complexity climate model, Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4855–4869, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4855-2024, 2024.
  • Bassetti, S., Hutchinson, B., Tebaldi, C., & Kravitz, B. (2024). DiffESM: Conditional emulation of temperature and precipitation in Earth system models with 3D diffusion models. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 16, e2023MS004194. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004194
  • Snyder, A., Prime, N., Tebaldi, C., and Dorheim, K.: Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1301–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1301-2024, 2024.

2023

  • Claudia Tebaldi, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sybren Drijfhout, John Dunne, Tamsin L. Edwards, Erich Fischer, John C. Fyfe, Richard G. Jones, Robert E. Kopp, Charles Koven, Gerhard Krinner, Friederike Otto, Alex C. Ruane, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Jana Sillmann, Sophie Szopa, Prodromos Zanis, et al. The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective, Climate Risk Management, Volume 40, 2023, 100516, ISSN 2212-0963, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100516.
  • Kanishka B Narayan, Brian C O'Neill, Stephanie T Waldhoff and Claudia Tebaldi et al. Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 2023 Environ. Res. Lett. 18 044013DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb0
  • Narayan, K. B., O'Neill, B. C., Waldhoff, S., and Tebaldi, C.: A consistent dataset for the net income distribution for 190 countries and aggregated to 32 geographical regions from 1958 to 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2333–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2333-2024, 2024.
  • Woodard, D. L., Snyder, A., Lamontagne, J. R., Tebaldi, C., Morris, J., Calvin, K. V., et al. (2023). Scenario discovery analysis of drivers of solar and wind energy transitions through 2050. Earth's Future, 11, e2022EF003442. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003442
  • Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Ruby Leung and David Lawrence, et al, Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal?, 2023 Environ. Res. Lett. 18 084009DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ace3da

2022

  • Tebaldi, C., Snyder, A., and Dorheim, K.: STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1557–1609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1557-2022, 2022.

2021

  • Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., Bauer, S. E., Boucher, O., Brovkin, V., Byun, Y.-H., Dix, M., Gualdi, S., Guo, H., John, J. G., Kharin, S., Kim, Y., Koshiro, T., Ma, L., Olivié, D., Panickal, S., Qiao, F., Rong, X., Rosenbloom, N., Schupfner, M., Séférian, R., Sellar, A., Semmler, T., Shi, X., Song, Z., Steger, C., Stouffer, R., Swart, N., Tachiiri, K., Tang, Q., Tatebe, H., Voldoire, A., Volodin, E., Wyser, K., Xin, X., Yang, S., Yu, Y., and Ziehn, T.: Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021.
  • Tebaldi, C., Dorheim, K., Wehner, M., and Leung, R.: Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1427-2021, 2021.
  • Tebaldi, C., Ranasinghe, R., Vousdoukas, M. et al. Extreme sea levels at different global warming levels. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 746–751 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01127-1

2020

  • Berrett C, Christensen WF, Sain SR, et al. Modeling sea-level processes on the U.S. Atlantic Coast. Environmetrics. 2020; 31:e2609. https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2609
  • C Tebaldi, A Armbruster, H P Engler and R Link et al, Emulating climate extreme indices, 2020 Environ. Res. Lett. 15 074006DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ab8332
  • Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S., Richter, J. H., Tebaldi, C., Gettelman, A., et al. (2020). Characteristics of future warmer base states in CESM2. Earth and Space Science, 7, e2020EA001296. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001296