January 30, 2019
Feature

Cooling Off Warming Trends in the Arctic

Study shows that emissions from trans-Arctic shipping could increase clouds, cooling the atmosphere and surface.

Arctic shipping emissions are known to warm the snow and ice

The Science

As global temperatures increase, melting Arctic sea ice is enabling greater maritime access to the Arctic Ocean. Emissions from shipping are believed to have the potential to warm the Earth further by darkening snow and ice surfaces, or they may cool the climate by promoting cloud formation.

Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory participated in a study that modeled changes in climate trends associated with increases in shipping traffic and related emissions. Results showed that, relative to a shipping-free Arctic, trans-Arctic shipping increased cloud formation and caused the Arctic surface air to be cooler by about 1°C by the end of this century.

The Impact

This study illustrates the complexity of climatic responses to increased shipping in the Arctic, which has been warming at twice the global average. While results showed that increased shipping emissions could reduce Arctic warming, more ship traffic presents environmental risks such as oil spills or increased impacts on marine life. Regulatory and trade agreements could also alter shipping emissions and the ratio of sulfur particles in the atmosphere, changing the impact of ships on clouds and the environment.

The findings highlight the need for greater understanding of how Earth systems and industrial activities interact with and influence each other.

Reference: S.R. Stephenson, W. Wang, C.S. Zender, H. Wang, S.J. Davis, and P.J. Rasch, "Climatic Responses to Future Trans-Arctic Shipping." Geophysical Research Letters 45(18), 9898-9908 (2018). [DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078969].

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About PNNL

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory draws on its distinguishing strengths in chemistry, Earth sciences, biology and data science to advance scientific knowledge and address challenges in energy resiliency and national security. Founded in 1965, PNNL is operated by Battelle and supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy. The Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, visit the DOE Office of Science website. For more information on PNNL, visit PNNL's News Center. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram.

Published: January 30, 2019