PNNL

This paper, a contribution to the EMF 22 subgroup on Transition Scenarios, examines the relationship between technology evolution over the next forty years and the cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions consequences of possible U.S. mitigation goals. The paper explores these issues within the context of cumulative emissions targets based on linear reductions in CO2-e emissions of 50 percent and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Six technology futures were constructed within the MiniCAM integrated assessment model and then applied to the emissions targets. The paper explores the influence of technology availability and expectations of future technology availability on the economic consequences of emissions mitigation, on the time path of emissions mitigation, and on the evolution of the U.S. energy system over time. One of the strongest themes to emerge from the scenarios in this study is that near-term decision-making depends on the availability of technology decades into the future, when deep emissions reductions are required to meet the cumulative emissions goals. In the scenarios in this paper, it is expectations about future technology that have the most dramatic effect on greenhouse gas emissions prices and emissions reductions in 2020, as opposed to near-term technology availability. Moreover, it is the nature of technology 20, 30, and 40 years out, rather than availability and deployment of technology in the next decade, that will largely determine the character of the mid-century energy system.