PNNL

Abstract

This analysis evaluates uncertainties of previously conducted techno-economic analysis of transportation fuel production via biomass gasification and mixed alcohol synthesis. Two scenarios are considered: a state-of-technology scenario utilizing existing technologies and a target scenario representing future advancements in related technologies. Uncertainties of more than ten parameters are investigated, including feedstock price, internal rate of return (IRR), etc. Historical price data of these parameters are fitted with the most appropriate distribution and datasets are generated for each parameter accordingly. These data sets are then utilized to run a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results yield minimum fuel selling prices of $7.02/gal with a standard deviation of 0.49 for the state-of-technology scenario and $4.33/gal with a standard deviation of 0.42 for the target scenario respectively. Feedstock price and IRR have significant impact on the minimum fuel selling price in both scenarios. These findings are indicative of the reduction in biofuel cost and uncertainty achievable with increasing technology maturity.