PNNL

Abstract

Understanding the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is critical for implementing optimal farming practices and maintaining agricultural productivity. This study examines the influence of climate and agricultural management on carbon sequestration potentials in Tai-Lake Paddy soils of China using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model, with a high-resolution soil database (1:50,000). Model simulations considered the effects of no tillage, increasing manure application, increasing/decreasing of N-fertilizer application and crop residues, water management, and climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation. We found that the carbon sequestration potential for the 2.32 Mha paddy soils of the Tai-Lake region varied from 4.71 to 44.31 Tg C during the period 2001-2019, with an annual average SOC changes ranged from 107 to 1005 kg C ha-1 yr-1. The sequestration potential significantly increased with increasing application of N-fertilizer, manure, conservation tillage, and crop residues. To increase soil C sequestration in this region, no-tillage and increasing of crop residue return to soils and manure application are recommended. Our analysis of climate impacts on SOC sequestration suggests that the rice paddies in this region will continue to be a carbon sink under future warming conditions. In addition, because the region’s annual precipitation (>1200 mm) is high, we also recommend reducing irrigation water use for these rice paddies to conserve freshwater in the Tai-Lake region.