The International Atomic Energy Agency State Evaluation Process: The Role of Information Analysis in Reaching Safeguards Conclusions (Mathews et al. 2008), several examples of nonproliferation models using analytical software were developed that may assist the IAEA with collecting, visualizing, analyzing, and reporting information in support of the State Evaluation Process. This paper focuses on one of the examples a set of models developed in the Proactive Scenario Production, Evidence Collection, and Testing (ProSPECT) software that evaluates the status and nature of a state’s nuclear activities. The models use three distinct subject areas to perform this assessment: the presence of nuclear activities, the consistency of those nuclear activities with national nuclear energy goals, and the geopolitical context in which those nuclear activities are taking place. As a proof-of-concept for the models, a crude case study was performed. The study, which attempted to evaluate the nuclear activities taking place in Syria prior to September 2007, yielded illustrative, yet inconclusive, results. Due to the inconclusive nature of the case study results, changes that may improve the model’s efficiency and accuracy are proposed.
Revised: April 24, 2013 |
Published: September 25, 2009