PNNL

Abstract

In 2015 the U.S. Department of Energy initiated a four-year study, the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP 2), to improve the representation of boundary-layer physics and related processes in mesoscale models for better wind and wind power forecasts. This goal challenges numerical weather prediction models in complex terrain due to inherent assumptions underlying their boundary-layer parameterizations. The WFIP 2 effort involved the wind industry, universities, NOAA, and DOE's national laboratories in an integrated observational and modeling study. Observations spanned 18-months to assure a full annual cycle of continuously recorded observations from remote-sensing and in situ measurement systems. The study area comprised the Columbia Basin of eastern Washington and Oregon, containing more than 4 GW of installed wind capacity; nests of observational systems captured important atmospheric scales from mesoscale to NWP sub-grid scale. Model improvements targeted NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to facilitate transfer of improvements to NWS operational forecast models. This paper describes the general WFIP 2 scope and objectives, the particular scientific challenges of improving wind forecasts in complex terrain, early successes of the project, and an integrated approach to archiving observations and model output. It provides an introduction for a set of more detailed BAMS papers addressing WFIP 2 observational science, modeling challenges and solutions, practical transfer of boundary layer advances to industry use, and advances in coupling improved mesoscale models to microscale models that can represent interactions between wind plants and the atmosphere.