PNNL

The Science

To limit global temperature rise below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) by 2100, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says human-caused greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced to nearly zero, and any remaining emissions need to be captured and stored. This is known as net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.

Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, along with colleagues at the University of California, Los Angeles and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, developed a detailed roadmap for California to achieve net-zero emissions sustainably by 2050. They also quantified the associated health benefits from reducing air pollution via this roadmap. The researchers found that achieving net-zero emissions in California by 2050 could avoid 14,000 premature deaths each year and bring disproportionately high health benefits to disadvantaged communities. The annualized monetary benefits are more than double the cost of emissions abatement, indicating that net-zero emissions can be achieved with a significant net social benefit.

The Impact

This study facilitates integrated decision making through a simultaneous consideration of the most ambitious climate target, the attainment of air quality standards, and the protection of public health at local and community scales. It provides guidance for the local governments to integrate climate policies with their local environmental policies, so that they can improve local health and welfare while also supporting global climate mitigation targets.

Summary

Few studies have investigated the health benefits and economic costs of achieving net-zero emissions at a regional or local scale. To bridge this gap, researchers used detailed modeling of energy system transformation, cross-sectoral connectivity, and technology penetration to develop a technology roadmap for California to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions sustainably in 2050. Then, they quantified the associated health benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of net-zero emissions.

The researchers found that approximately 14,000 premature deaths can be avoided in California in 2050, and that the top 25 percent of the state’s population that most suffers from economic, health, and environmental burdens would receive approximately 35 percent of the health benefits. Reduced emissions could bring $215 billion in annualized monetary benefits, such as reduced lives lost and healthcare costs; these monetary benefits are more than twice as much as the $106 billion estimated cost for emissions abatement.

The researchers also found that achieving net-zero emissions requires the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration technology to offset greenhouse gas emissions. This technology, however, comes at a price, as it would emit a considerable amount of air pollutants and reduce monetized health benefits by $4 billion. Nevertheless, the analysis demonstrates that ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can provide significant health benefits, especially for residents of disadvantaged communities.

PNNL Contact

Jerome D. Fast, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Jerome.Fast@pnnl.gov

Funding

This work was supported by the University of California, Los Angeles Sustainable LA Grand Challenge Project, National Science Foundation, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Bin Zhao was partially supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research program.