October 8, 2025
Journal Article
Rising temperatures intensify drought propagation and severity across the contiguous United States
Abstract
This study examines how drought propagation probabilities evolve under thermodynamic warming across the Contiguous United States. We focus on how meteorological droughts (MD) of varying intensities trigger agricultural (AD) and hydrological (HD) droughts, and where thermodynamic warming may exacerbate/mitigate propagation probabilities. Using high-resolution climate data and the Community Land Model version 5, we simulate future soil moisture and runoff for 464 headwater basins. Results indicate that, under warming scenarios, MD-AD and MD-HD propagation probabilities generally increase but exhibit complex patterns, with significant regional variability. The Midwest and Southeast regions are projected to see the largest increases in MD-AD and MD-HD probabilities due to compounded warmer temperature and reduced precipitation. Although regions like the Northwest and Northeast are projected to have increased annual precipitation, their drought responses differ due to variations in precipitation seasonality. These findings highlight the critical roles of both temperature and precipitation seasonality in shaping drought propagation dynamics.Published: October 8, 2025