PNNL

Abstract

This paper explores the variation in Asian energy systems in the energy-economic and integrated assessment models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Consistent with previous studies, the AME scenarios exhibit substantial variation about energy system configurations, a reflection of the inherent uncertainty in how countries might undertake climate mitigation and associated energy system decisions. The paper also explores the degree to which scenarios from individual models retain regional differences in energy system configurations over time. The scenarios are mixed in this regard. Some models tend to converge toward common energy systems that focus on the utilization of a common set of options across regions while others retain strong differences. A review of modeling approaches indicates that the participating models are constructed to represent many, but not all, of the real-world forces leading to regional variation. The models do not have the capability to represent some of the most important social and political factors that influence energy technology decision making, raising important questions about how decision-makers should interpret regional variations across models, particularly over the medium-to-long term.