PNNL

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario thread through the different climate research communities (climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation (VIA) and mitigation) in order to provide assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and other VIA challenges. The scenario framework is defined across two main axes. One is defined by the radiative forcing levels (climate signal) of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The second axis is defined by socio-economic development and comprises elements that affect the capacity for adaptation and mitigation but also exposure to climate impacts. The proposed set of scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and spans a full century time scale. Scenario assessment based on the proposed framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and the VIA research community, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across communities.