November 18, 2024
Journal Article

Present-day correlations insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2

Abstract

Cloud albedo susceptibility to droplet number perturbation remains a source of uncertainty in understanding aerosol– cloud interactions, and thus climate states both past and present. Through E3SM v2 experiments, we probe the effects of competing processes on cloud albedo susceptibility of low-lying marine stratocumulus in the Northeast Paci?c. In present-day conditions, we ?nd that increasing precipitation suppression by aerosols increases cloud albedo susceptibility, whereas increasing cloud sedimentation decreases it. By constructing a hypothetical model con?guration exhibiting negative susceptibility under all conditions, we conclude that cloud albedo change due to aerosol perturbation cannot be predicted by present-day co-variabilities in E3SM v2. As such, our null result herein challenges the assumption that present-day climate observations are suf?cient to constrain past states, at least in the context of cloud albedo changes to aerosol perturbation.

Published: November 18, 2024

Citation

Mahfouz N.G., J.H. Muelmenstaedt, and S.M. Burrows. 2024. Present-day correlations insufficient to predict cloud albedo change by anthropogenic aerosols in E3SM v2. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 24, no. 12:7253–7260. PNNL-SA-194322. doi:10.5194/acp-24-7253-2024

Research topics