PNNL

Abstract

As the US fleet of light water reactors ages, the risks of operation might be expected to increase. Although probabilistic risk assessment has proven a critical resource in risk-informed regulatory decision-making, limitations in current methods and models have constrained their prospective value in reactor aging management. These limitations stem principally from the use of static component failure rate models (which do not allow the impact of component aging on failure rates to be represented) and a very limited treatment of passive components (which would be expected to have an increasingly significant risk contribution in an aging system). Yet, a PRA captures a substantial knowledge base that could be of significant value in addressing plant aging. In this paper we will describe a methodology and a new class of risk importance measures that allow the use of an existing PRA model to support the management of plant aging, the prioritization of improvements to non-destructive examination and monitoring techniques, and the establishment of research emphases in materials science. This methodology makes use of data resources generated under the USNRC Proactive Management of Materials Degradation program which addresses the anticipated effects of numerous aging degradation mechanisms on a wide variety of component types.