PNNL

Abstract

The performance of the NOAA High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model for resolving low-level winds over a wind energy production site in central California during summer 2019 is evaluated herein. This study intends to catalogue the ability of a high-resolution model to capture boundary layer dynamics relevant to wind energy interests in an area with complex terrain, which has long presented challenges for weather models and wind energy forecasting. Performance is evaluated by comparing HRRR model output to two in-situ wind-profiling Doppler lidars and a surface meteorological station at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300. HRRR captured the diurnal cycle of surface layer winds (1 MW) over the rest of the diurnal cycle for all forecast hours. These results demonstrate conditions under which HRRR performs well in complex terrain, as well as highlighting potential areas requiring further investigation to support usage of a high-resolution model for wind energy forecasts.