PNNL

Abstract

Earth System Models (ESMs) are excellent tools for quantifying many aspects of future climate change, but far too computationally expensive to produce probabilistic estimates for downstream users of ESM data. Climate model emulators provide an effective mechanism for filling this gap, reproducing many aspects of ESMs rapidly but with lower precision. The fldgen v1.0 R package rapidly generates thousands of realizations of gridded temperature fields by coherently randomizing the residuals of pattern scaling temperature output from any single ESM, retaining the spatial and temporal variance and covariance structures of the input data at a much lower computational cost. The fldgen v2.0 R package described here extends this capability to produce joint realizations of temperature and precipitation.