PNNL

Abstract

Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. As part of a scenario analysis for the US Climate Change Technology Program, measurements and geographic data were used to develop terrestrial carbon sequestration estimates for agricultural soil carbon, reforestation and pasture management. These estimates were then applied in the MiniCAM integrated assessment model to evaluate mitigation strategies within policy and technology scenarios aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. Terrestrial sequestration reach a peak combined rate of 0.5 to 0.7 Gt carbon yr-1 in mid-century with contributions from agricultural soil (0.21 Gt carbon yr-1), reforestation (0.31 Gt carbon yr-1) and pasture (0.15 Gt carbon yr-1). Sequestration rates vary over time period and with different technology and policy scenarios. The combined contribution of terrestrial sequestration over the next century ranges from 31 to 41 GtC. The contribution of terrestrial sequestration to mitigation is highest early in the century, reaching up to 20% of total carbon mitigation. This analysis provides insight into the behavior of terrestrial carbon mitigation options in the presence and absence of climate change mitigation policies.