PNNL

Abstract

The post-monsoon (October-November) tropical cyclone (TC) season in the Bay of Bengal has spawned many of the deadliest storms in recorded history. Here it is shown that the intensity of post-monsoon Bay of Bengal TCs, and the contribution of major TCs to total TC power, increased during 1981-2010. It is found that changes in environmental parameters are responsible for the observed increases in TC intensity. Increases in sea surface temperature and upper ocean heat content made the ocean more conducive to TC development, while enhanced convective instability made the atmosphere more favorable for the growth of TCs. The largest changes in the atmosphere and ocean occurred in the eastern Bay of Bengal, where nearly all major TCs form. These changes are part of positive linear trends, suggesting that the intensity of post-monsoon Bay of Bengal TCs may continue to increase in the future.