PNNL

Abstract

Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas (GHG), and air pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation (GCAM-USA). We find that if the U.S. income distribution becomes more egalitarian than present, residential energy demand could be 10% (4-14% across states) higher in 2100. If the U.S. transitions to a less equitable income distribution than present, residential energy demands could be 19% (12-26% across states) lower. To improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider income distribution impacts.