The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2oC. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ~$300x109, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/yr mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/yr currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.
Published: September 15, 2021
Citation
Edmonds J.A., S. Yu, H.C. McJeon, D. Forrister, J. Aldy, N. Hultman, and R. Cui, et al. 2021.How much could Article 6 enhance Nationally Determined Contribution ambition toward Paris Agreement goals through economic efficiency?.Climate Change Economics 12, no. 2:2150007.PNNL-SA-162547.doi:10.1142/S201000782150007X