Most long-term scenarios of global N emissions are produced by Integrated Assessment Models in the context of climate change assessment. The scenarios indicate that N emissions are likely to increase in the next decades, followed by a stabilization or decline. Critical factors for future N emissions are the development of the underlying drivers (especially fertilizer use, animal husbandry, transport and power generation), air pollution control policy and climate policy. The new scenarios made for climate change assessment, the Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs, are not representative of the range of possible N-emission projections. A more focused development of scenarios for air pollution may improve the relevance and quality of the scenarios.
Revised: July 26, 2012 |
Published: September 17, 2011
Citation
Van Vuuren D., L. Bouwman, S.J. Smith, and F. Dentener. 2011.Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: an assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature.Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 3, no. 5:359–369.PNNL-SA-79731.doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.08.014